Making budgets more transparent in oil rich states

In the OBI working paper series that we have been posting about recently, Michael Ross of UCLA returns to the question of the resource curse (click here for his paper). He looks specifically at how a country’s mineral wealth affects the transparency of the government’s budget. He finds that the budget transparency of countries with oil and those with other mineral riches is not impacted on in the same way. Just like Wehner and de Renzio, his research suggests that the solution to the puzzle of what drives budget transparency in resource rich countries, lies in domestic factors.

The difference between oil and non-oil states

Much like Wehner and de Renzio, Ross finds that among democracies, a country’s mineral wealth does not have much effect on the transparency of the government budget. Among autocracies though, greater oil wealth correlates with less fiscal transparency. So oil wealth makes the budgets of undemocratic countries less transparent. But contrary to what one might have expected, Ross finds that non-fuel mineral wealth makes government budgets more transparent.

The paper also demonstrates that oil has an effect on budget transparency that goes above and beyond its more general effect on democratic accountability. So there appears to be a version of the resource curse aimed at budget transparency specifically.

Why, you might ask?

Its not EITI

Based on the available data, Ross does not find convincing evidence that the different levels of budget transparency in countries dependent on oil and those dependent on other kinds of mineral wealth, can be explained by membership in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). He argues that if EITI pressures were responsible for the exceptional transparency of some mineral-producing autocracies, one would expect that most highly transparent mineral autocracies would be EITI members. However in Ross’s analysis, of the five authoritarian mineral producers that are relatively transparent (South Africa, Russia, Botswana, Namibia and Zambia) – only one (Zambia) is a member of EITI. In fact, the mineral-producing autocracies that are EITI members (Zambia and Kazakhstan) have lower OBI scores than the mineral-producing autocracies than are not members, although the differences are not statistically significant.

It’s not foreign investment either

Ross also doesn’t find evidence that the transparency anomaly can be explained by dependency on foreign investment. Oil rich countries derive much more revenue from their extractive industries than countries rich in other minerals derive from theirs. The argument would go that non-oil countries would be more transparent because they are more dependent on foreign investment. But Ross doesn’t find any link between foreign investment inflows and budget transparency.

The clue lies in who extracts

Unsurprisingly Ross concludes that learning more about the different levels of budget transparency in oil and mineral dependent countries should be a priority for future research. He finds a promising clue to this puzzle in the fact that in most autocracies the state manages oil extraction itself through national oil companies, making it easier to cloak revenue. The extraction of other minerals is more often managed by the private sector. This still doesn’t explain why the regular budgets of oil states would also be less transparent. But the lower revenue derived by non-oil states may make them more dependent on domestic revenue such as taxes and service charges. The research of Mick Moore on taxation and democracy suggests that dependence on the consent of citizens to pay tax may compel governments to be more transparent with the management of public resources.

What does all this mean?

One of the important implications of Ross’s findings for the policy and advocacy community is that domestic politics, and therefore national level advocacy, matter a great deal. Like Wehner and de Renzio, Ross finds that the way in which extractives are managed at country level is the key variable for their impact on budget transparency. In fact, it may matter more than the need to attract foreign investment, and more than international advocacy campaigns. Of course this does not make international advocacy for transparency irrelevant. It just means that international advocacy efforts should be based on a better understanding of domestic contexts, and have a complementary focus on country level advocacy.

State Capitalism makes government budgets less transparent

Last week’s Economist tries to take down ‘state capitalism’, which it describes as an economic growth model where enterprises are ‘backed by the state but behaving like a private-sector multinational.’ This ‘backing’ takes many forms, from state-owned enterprises to significant government share-holding in private firms, to aggressive industrial policy measures such as tax breaks and loan guarantees.

The Economist claims a number of weaknesses in the state capitalism model, such as slower growth and inefficient use of capital and human resources. In addition to these economic orthodoxies, this model poses another set of problems: it makes government finances less transparent. Continue reading

How we will promote aid and budget transparency in Busan

prepared by Paolo de Renzio, Senior Research Fellow at the International Budget Partnership

Open Budget Surveys have repeatedly found that countries that are heavily dependent on foreign aid to finance their budgets tend to have less transparent budget processes, . This might be due to various country characteristics, such as low incomes or weak democratic institutions. But donor behaviour also plays a part, as argued in a recent IBP Briefing Note. The brief highlights the importance of the relationship between donors’ provision of information on aid flows and recipient country governments’ disclosure of budget information to their citizens. In fact, aid transparency and budget transparency are inextricably linked. Budgets in partner countries cannot be made fully transparent without improved aid transparency. Only if donors provide partner countries with sufficient information, compatible with partner country budget systems and schedules, can timely, accurate and comprehensive budget information be made available to citizens of countries receiving aid. This point is also highlighted in the the Dar es Salaam Declaration on Budget Transparency, Accountability and Participation, signed last week by nearly 100 civil society groups.

At the Fourth High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness, which will take place in a few days in Busan, South Korea, the transparency theme will have a prominent place. The latest draft of the Busan Outcome Document (the declaration that participating governments will sign at the end of the Forum) covers transparency issues in a number of ways. First, transparency and accountability are recognized as ‘shared principles’ that form the foundation of development cooperation, alongside ownership, results and inclusive partnerships. Second, a whole paragraph (para 22) is devoted to aid transparency commitments, in which donor agencies undertake to make publicly available more information on aid flows, and to implement a common standard for its publication, building among other things on the efforts of the International Aid Transparency Initiative. Third, donors and recipient countries commit to building more transparent public financial management systems and to improving fiscal transparency.

All of these commitments were the outcome of some difficult negotiations, facing resistance from a number of donor governments, including China, Japan and France. Provided they make it through the final discussions, they are very welcome, and represent a significant step forward in recognizing the importance of transparency and accountability as key ingredients of both aid and development effectiveness. The explicit link between aid transparency and budget transparency, however, is not recognized. Luckily, this link will be the focus of a plenary session, which IBP has helped organize and which is supported by a smaller number of like-minded actors, including the governments of Sweden, the US, Rwanda and South Africa, the Collaborative Africa Budget Reform Initiative (CABRI), the World Bank and CSOs like Transparency International and Publish What You Fund. In this session, more ambitious targets and commitments around aid and budget transparency will be discussed, and hopefully agreed.

One of the most important aspects of the discussions at Busan will be to agree on the future international architecture for development cooperation, with a view to overcome the limitations of the OECD/DAC Working Party on Aid Effectiveness, which for too long has been seen as too exclusive a body that does not reflect the role of emerging donors and the need for a more equal partnership between donor and recipient governments. The current draft of the Busan Outcome Document talks about the establishment of a Global Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation. Ideally, this body should include a specific mechanism for ensuring the transparency-related commitments are monitored and enforced. Such mechanism would also gain from a multi-stakeholder nature, following the example of the Global Initiative for Fiscal Transparency (GIFT), which brings together governments, international organizations and civil society groups in a joint effort to promote fiscal transparency across the world.

The International Budget Partnership will be represented at the Busan Forum, and will report back on what happened.

Watch this space!

What the Open Government Partnership could do

This post was written for the OGP by Warren Krafchik, Director of the IBP.

I am extremely excited about the Open Government Partnership (OGP) and its potential impact on the quality of life of citizens around the world.  We know that there are sufficient public resources available globally to eradicate extreme poverty and inequality.  The problem is the distribution and management of these resources.   Open government practices offer great promise for improving our management of public resources and, therefore, our potential impact on poverty and inequality.

An opportunity for civil society around the world

On Tuesday, 20 September, eight governments will each commit to an action plan to enhance open government in their respective countries.  Approximately 37 other governments will signal their intention to submit similar action plans at a follow-up meeting in Brazil in March 2012.  The launch of the OGP presents a major opportunity for civil society organizations to influence the content and process of these governments’ commitments.  In each partner country, civil society organizations interested in any aspect of open government – including fiscal and extractive revenue transparency and service delivery –should start a conversation with their governments to suggest ambitious and meaningful commitments in these and other areas.   Civil society will also have an important opportunity to influence the consultation process that the government will use to arrive at these commitments and monitor their implementation. Continue reading

County On It

There are many questions that one could ask about Kenya’s new draft County Governments Financial Management Bill, 2011 which can be found online here. The first is why this bill is even more voluminous (40 extra pages!) than the Public Financial Management Bill draft for central government. Another question is how these two bills will be made consistent, given that they are being drafted by different agencies working independently.

Fillip for Transparency

I will ask more questions after I finish reading the entire 131 pages. In the meantime, I wanted to note two very positive things about this draft. The first is an excellent transparency clause located on page 29, section 30.  This clause says that the County accounting officer must place on the county website a comprehensive list of documents including:

The annual budget

All budget-related documents

All budget-related policies

The county annual report

All performance contracts

All service delivery agreements

All long-term borrowing contracts

All supply chain management contracts above a certain value

All quarterly reports tabled in the assembly

The list goes on. It is also noted that these documents must be available no later than five days after they have been tabled in the county assembly.

Funds Follow Function

The second clause that I wanted to draw attention to is on page 34, section 39. This clause states that “[c]ounty governments shall, in line with the principle of funds must match and follow functions, be allocated sufficient funds to enable their performance of the functions allocated to them.” This is followed by a spectacular provision stating that “the national government and the county governments, shall… Accurately cost the functions assigned to each level of government to determine the exact financial resources to be allocated to each level of government.” This is critical to ensure that the central government does not dump responsibilities onto county governments without sufficient resources to execute those responsibilities.

Both of these clauses—the one dealing with transparency, and the other with the relationship between fund and function—address key issues which have been flagged by budget advocacy organizations around the world working at the subnational level.  It is extremely encouraging to see these provisions in the draft legislation.  It is to be hoped that clauses of this type and quality will remain in the final bill, and will also influence positively the Public Financial Management Law.